Minnesota United had one of the strongest defenses in MLS during the first half of the season, so it was a surprise to see the Loons begin the second half by giving up four goals. Talking to coaches and players after Saturday night’s 4-2 loss to San Diego FC,

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Minnesota United win with a probability of 65.37%. A draw has a probability of 19% and a win for San Diego has a probability of 15.68%.

Anders Dreyer scored a goal in each half and Milan Iloski scored two goals late to rally expansion side San Diego FC to a 4-2 victory over Minnesota United, which saw a five-match unbeaten run end.