Fed warns of 'highly uncertain outlook' as JPMorgan and other analysts increase recession odds in response to Trump's tariff war.

In a note to investors released on Friday evening, the firm's chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, said that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract "under the weight of the tariffs.

J.P.Morgan ratcheted up its odds for a U.S. and global recession to 60%, as brokerages scrambled to revise their forecast models with tariff distress threatening to sap business confidence and slow down global growth.

“We now expect real GDP to contract under the weight of the tariffs, and for the full year (4Q/4Q) we now look for real GDP growth of -0.3%, down from 1.3% previously,” JP Morgan's chief US economist, Michael Feroli, said Friday.

It is shaping up to be another ugly day for bank stocks around the world. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs sold off Friday morning, after sliding Thursday. So did shares of Citigroup,

Odds of a recession jumped to 54% on the betting platform Kalshi following Trump's tariffs. Stocks tanked Thursday on trade war angst.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs wreaked havoc in the stock market this week, stoking fears of a trade-war escalation that could lead to a recession. U.S. stocks showed signs of “capitulation,” or a move toward “panic selling,

Stock markets continued to fall Friday as traders reacted to President Donald Trump's announced tariffs and the global response.