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Trump's Tariffs Could Push US Into Recession

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The Financial Times |
Analysts at Barclays forecast US output would fall in the fourth quarter of this year.
Reuters |
With tariffs set to hit economic growth and raising the odds for a global recession, it's no surprise that traders are ramping up their central bank rate-cut bets.

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Tariffs are a self-inflicted economic catastrophe for the US
The tariff hikes announced April 2, if maintained, represent a self-inflicted economic catastrophe for the US. We haven’t yet published a full update, but we’ll likely be reducing our US real GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 by around 0.
Reuters4d
US inflation swaps price in big short-term tariff impact, flag recession risk
The receiver seeks protection against rising inflation, while the payer, typically a bank, assumes the risk tied to inflation ... against imports from the United States. While there are no ...
Wall Street firms see recession risk rising over tariffs, trade war
Wall Street firms are warning that the risk of the U.S. economy falling into a recession are rising as President Trump's tariff plans could lead to an escalation of the trade war.
Moneyweb2d
US recession fear raises ‘grey swan’ risk for bond investors
Credit markets in the US are pricing in a much lower chance of a recession than equity markets are and something has to give,' said Chris Ellis.
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